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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.