Daily Murders in Mexico Decline 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The mean figure of per-day murders per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh administrative data. But, security experts have advised that homicide data might not signal better national safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when the President began the leadership in September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen in these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the least number of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it might mask periods when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.