Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
